By ARINA LVOVA
Global Business Journalism reporter
Many political and diplomatic observers miscalculate when they try to predict the behavior of U.S. President Donald Trump, American policy analyst Thomas W. Pauken II said during a visit to Tsinghua University on March 11. To understand Trump’s negotiating style, Pauken told Global Business Journalism students, you have to understand his family upbringing and his early years in the rough-and-tumble world of New York real estate negotiations.
Pauken, an expert in geopolitics and economic policy, laid out a series of stark details: Trump’s father Fred was a stern taskmaster who was never satisfied with his son’s performance. Young Donald was relentlessly bullied in school. The Trumps were looked down on by the elite families of New York society as brash, unworthy, uncouth outsiders.
"Trump really is looking for respect,” Pauken said. “He believes any moment of softness makes him look weak. By him fighting that hard, by him talking so tough, part of that is just his background."
Pauken’s analysis offers a unique perspective on Trump’s presidential leadership style, challenging the common perception of him as impulsive or unpredictable.
Rather than acting on impulse, he said, Trump’s bold rhetoric is a deliberate strategy designed to secure respect and win leverage in negotiations.
"You have to talk to him like a businessman — what’s the win-win? How do we both come out of the deal stronger?" Pauken explained.
He emphasized that Trump’s approach is rooted in creating stronger negotiating positions without compromising American interests. This approach, while often criticized as brash, is, in reality, a calculated tactic meant to shift the negotiating balance of power in his favor.
The Trump that emerges in closed-door negotiating sessions is “90% different than the media image,” said Pauken, a senior fellow at the America First Asia Institute and author of "US vs. China: From Trade Wars to Reciprocal Deal."
But the public Trump, with brash pronouncements and combative rhetoric, often leads political analysts to conclude that “he’s a crazy guy,” Pauken notes. They ask, “How can he say all these crazy things?”
China-U.S. economic relations are a case study in the Trump approach to negotiations. Since returning to office in January, Trump has focused on recalibrating the bilateral trade balance. In February, he signed Executive Order 14195 imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, which escalated to 20% by March. This approach, while provoking retaliatory tariffs from China, is seen as part of a broader strategy to create leverage in negotiations, not simply a tariff war. Trump's method, while raising tensions with Beijing, is also about shaping the terms of future deals to benefit the U.S. in the long term.
For Trump, respect is at the core of his worldview, especially in his dealings with powerful men. It’s been that way his whole life, starting with his father. Today’s strong men in his life include Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
"Nothing makes his day more than when Xi Jinping calls him," Pauken noted, highlighting the value Trump places on direct, respectful dialogue.
This drive for respect transcends economics and is central to Trump’s leadership style. In Trump’s view, strength and determination in diplomacy are paramount, as they reflect both personal and national pride. Despite rising tensions, Pauken expressed cautious optimism about the future of U.S.-China relations. He argued that friction, while uncomfortable, could lead to stronger, more fruitful negotiations if both sides focus on pragmatic outcomes.
“Trade imbalances are not sustainable for America,” he said.
Kommentare